Sensitivity Analysis for Freehold Royalties (FRU.TO)

Views: 307 2025-10-02 Because FRU is directly tied to oil & gas royalty revenue, the biggest lever on intrinsic value is commodity price (WTI oil & AECO gas). I’ll build three scenarios: Bear Case (low oil/gas), Base Case (moderate), Bull Case (high). Then map out intrinsic value ranges. Key Inputs Used Current revenue (TTM): $314.6M Net income (TTM): $152.7M FCF (TTM): –$188.4M (normalize this to ~$100M based on history, ignoring acquisition-heavy year) Shares outstanding: ~167M P/E applied: 13.5–15x (peer range) Oil sensitivity: For every $10/bbl change in WTI, FRU’s royalty revenue shifts ~15–20% (based on historical elasticities). Scenario Modeling Bear …

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